Fixture details
Top of the Premier League Manchester City are entertaining 3rd placed Brighton in the 9th matchweek. The match will be played at Etihad Stadium on 31st October, Saturday. The kick-off time is 3pm GMT. It is 4:00pm West Africa time. Referee is Craig Pawson. VAR is John Brooks. They played on Wednesday too. It was a Carabao Cup match.
What are the best odds and which market to choose?
Our pick: Over 2.5 Goals
The recommended odds: 2/5 (1.40) - bet365.
The implied probability is 71% approx. for 1.40.
The latest form
Manchester City was winning 7 out of 8 matches in the league. They scored 20 and conceded 9 goals. They lost 2-1 at Aston Villa, ending their perfect start. Anyway, they scored in all 8 league matches. They didn't manage a clean sheet in the last 5 matches.
Brighton too, had their first defeat in a while. They are on 5 wins, 1 draw and 2 losses, with 23 goals for and 7 against. Their 2-0 loss to Liverpool ended a run of 4 games in which they won. They have 5 clean sheets in 8.
On Wednesday we had a good sign of goals in the cup game. City came from 2-0 down to draw 2-2. Then won on pens.
Home and Away.
City has been a powerhouse at home. They won all 4 games in the league. At the Etihad, 11 goals for and 6 against averaging 4.25 goals per game in those.
Brighton is not so good on the road. They won 2 and lost 2 away games. 10 goals for. 6 against. The results away they had so far, 4-3 loss to Chelsea, 5-0 win at Coventry, 2-0 win at Sunderland. Add the loss to Liverpool and that makes it 2 out of 4 games away from home that had over 2.5 goals.
Ones for attacking and defending.
These are the top 2 attacking threats in the league. Brighton top the league for goals with 23 whilst Erling Haaland leads scorer charts with 9 goals. Brighton had 13+ shots in all their league games. One provider has Brighton as top for total xG with 13.51. 2nd is City with 12.59. There seems to be a warning for regression in defensive stats for Brighton. They let in 5 goals in the first 7 games from 10.88 xGA. Huge gap in their favour.
Head to Head/Team news.
There's some exciting stuff in recent H2H. The last 3 H2H league games were 1-1s. 2-1 (to Brighton) and 2-2 draw. In the last 5 H2Hs, City didn't beat Brighton in 90mins. In 4 of them 2.5 over. In all 5 games both teams scored. 2 wins and 2 draws from 4 league games under Fabian Hurzeler for Brighton. The past is a context not a promise.
Confirmed.
Only absent for city - Antoine Semenyo as confirmed by Maresca. Matues Nunes and Iliman Ndiaye available, said Maresca.
Hurzeler said Struijk will not be an option.
Reported, not confirmed
Yankuba Minteh & Mats Wieffer come back from injury. Hurzeler said he's "quite convinced" they will be options.
Ferdi Kadioglu expected to be an option, starting position unconfirmed
Haaland, Donnarumma and Elliot Anderson expected back for City line up.
Reason and uncertainty
Over 2.5. There's a case for it. City have a high scoring chance at home. Brighton have the best attack in the league. Luck has been on their side when it comes to xG and their defensive efforts. Both teams will probably field good teams after Wednesday's rotation so it increases the quality of both attacks.
Reasons why the bet could fail:
None of the last 5 league games for Brighton saw both teams score.
Only 5/8 league games for Brighton Over 2.5. Only half their away games
Brighton's defence is very strong. 5 clean sheets only 7 goals conceded.
If City score early it could slow the game down for them.
1.40 is short for betting so one loss game destroys the bet. Never risk more than you can afford to lose. 18+. Please, bet responsibly with BeGambleAware.
