Game info
Match: Derby della Madonnina - AC Milan vs Inter. Competition: Serie A, game week 10. The game starts at 19:45 GMT (31 October Saturday). This is 8:45pm West Africa time on 31 October 2026 Saturday.
Game venue: San Siro. Host team: AC Milan.
Referee: Marco Guida. VAR: Mazzoleni.
Recommended market and odds.
Our pick: Double chance, Inter or draw (2X)
Reason: Win if Inter wins or draw, lose if Milan wins.
Value: Price 1.33 with 1xBet as of 29 October 2026. The books are 1.31 to 1.33 on this event for Draw/Inter. 1.33 means you have about a 75% chance of winning.
Recent form
Unbeaten: Inter are 8-1-0 in 9 games. 25 goals scored, 10 conceded. They won 2-0 at Venezia on Wednesday, but they only scored 2 goals in the last 10 minutes. It was not a great performance.
Not Good: Milan are 5th with 18 pts. 5-3-1 record. 18 GF, 11 GA. First league loss of the season Wednesday at home against Bologna. 4-2 loss. So 2 losses in 3 games (all comps).
Home and Away Performance
Despite the Bologna loss, Milan's home performance is pretty good. They have won 3 out of 4 at the San Siro. 10 GF 6 GA
The KEY of this bet is: Inter is a very hard team to beat AWAY. Prior to Venezia they had 2 wins and 1 draw. 6 scored and 3 conceded. Including Venezia, they have 3 wins and 1 draw in 4. 8 goals scored, 3 conceded. They have not lost away this season.
Evidence of attacking and defensive
Inter have the better attack. One provider has xG per game for Inter as 2.37 and for Milan as 1.44. No goalless games for Inter in their first 8 games. All 9 of their league games have seen both teams score, so even without their main man, they should get a goal.
Less secure defences. Inter had just two clean sheets in their first 8 games. Milan had 3 in 8. So Milan can score too. That's why the draw cover is important. Again, xG varies by provider. Use them as a guide.
H2H & Team News.
This is the big counter for the pick. Both of the league derbies last season were won 1-0 by Milan. The second time was at the San Siro. The date was 8 March.
Confirmed or regular reported
- No Lautaro Martinez for Inter. He's got a thigh muscle injury.
- Long term absentees for Milan are: Matteo Gabbia, Alexis Saelemaekers, Samuel Chukwueze
Unconfirmed or conflicting
Doubtful Adrien Rabiot, Diego Moreira and Mario Gila for Milan. And one possible formation with all of them. Ruben Amorim says that he could have to "take a risk" with some players.
Under observation at Inter the names of Curtis Jones, John Stones and Benjamin Pavard. For sure, from the start Marcus Thuram.
Wait for official line-ups before betting.
Reasoning and Uncertainty
It is a fit for the Inter or Draw. Because they are unbeaten. They are unbeaten away. They always score. Plus, injury-issues and the loss with Bologna are negatively affecting the home side. We remove the draw danger with a 2X cover.
Could not work because
Because Milan are good in derby games. Last season two wins 1-0.
Because at Inter the loss of Lautaro Martinez makes them weaker in finishing.
Many tips want to go with the other cover: Milan or Draw (around 4/5). Half and half.
One win from Milan at 1.33 cancels many winning bets.
Safer lean but bad price. You must never risk more than you can lose. 18+. Please play responsibly with BeGambleAware.
